Cost and Climate Change Impacts of Waste Valorization Pathways for Decarbonizing the US Municipal Solid Waste Systems

Investigators: Yuan Yao, Yale University, & Kai Lan, North Carolina State University

Start Date: 2024

Award Amount: $194,000  

Project Duration: 2 years 

Proposal Justification & Objectives

The urgent need to address increasing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and environmental challenges associated with the U.S. municipal solid waste (MSW) industries requires a holistic approach. Previous life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) studies on MSW valorization have focused on process-level individual systems without considering broader markets, policies, and industrial decision-making. This project aims to fill this gap by developing forward-looking, policy-relevant, and market-driven integrated systems analysis models for the U.S. MSW management systems focusing on energy vaporization and material circularization. This project will provide multifaceted approaches and cross-sectional insights to support EREF’s engagement with all participants and stakeholders in the circular economy. This project aligns with EREF’s research priorities in sustainable MSW management and supports EREF’s efforts in forward-looking research and education.

The objectives of this project include:

• Identifying existing and emerging MSW valorization pathways and literature
• Quantifying the short- and long-term decarbonization potential of optimized MSW valorization systems under different socioeconomic pathways
• Assessing the impacts of future policy and circular economy strategies on the adoption, decarbonization, and economic outcomes of MSW valorization

Description of the Research Approach & Experimental Design

The integrated systems analysis model includes three parts, (A) a set of process-based LCA and TEA models for various MSW valorization pathways, (B) an MSW market model projecting future MSW generation, and (C) a technology choice model simulating the adoption of different MSW pathways subject to market and resource constraints. Part (A) will be achieved by a comprehensive literature review and data collection combined with process-based LCA and TEA model development. Part (B) will be developed using the shared socioeconomic pathways and data of past U.S. MSW generation and Part (C) will be modeled using mathematical programming, leveraging the well-known SWOLF. The integrated analysis model will be used to quantify the cost and decarbonization potential of large-scale MSW valorization as well as to analyze the effects of various policy interventions and circular economy strategies on the decarbonization and economic outcomes of the U.S. MSW sector.